Last News


Европейский сейсмологический центр EMSC сообщил, что в центральной части Италии произошло землетрясение магнитудой 6,1. По данным Геологической службы США (USGS), сила толчков составила 6,2.


Elchin Khalilov has informed about the beginning of new project GNFE under the name "Geodynamic monitoring and hazard early warning system in landslide areas:"GeoDyn".

The new project is based on use of long-term experience effective application of international systems and geodynamical monitoring for forecasting of earthquakes. The project's mission is to create an effective technology for monitoring and early warning of people about the danger of a landslide, reducing thereby the risk to potential victims and other negative consequences of landslides affecting cities and high-risk industrial facilities (main highways and railways, dams, fuel storages and warehouses for toxic substances, petrochemical plants, etc.).


Prof. Elchin Khalilov is President of the Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes GNFE (UK) and Chairman of GEOCHANGE International Committee (Germany), gave the forecast of seismic activity of the world till 2026 on behalf of the above-mentioned organizations.


Проф. Эльчин Халилов - Президент Глобальной Сети Прогнозирования Землетрясений GNFE (UK) и  Председатель Международного  Комитета  GEOCHANGE (Germany), представил  прогноз  сейсмической активности  мира до 2026 года от имени вышеуказанных организаций. 



Forecasting of earthquakes


  • Reid, H.F. The mechanism of the earthquakes, In: The California Earthquake of April 18, 1906. Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission, Washington DC, Carnegie Institution, pp, 1 -192, 1910.
  • Pulinets, S, Boyarchuk, K. Ionospheric Precursors of Earthquakes. Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York, 2004.The precursory variation of different Parameters within the interval of earthquake preparation. pp 9.
  • Pulinets, S, Boyarchuk, K. Ionospheric Precursors of Earthquakes. Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York, 2004. Block Diagram of the Seismo-Ionospheric Model. pp169.
  • Dobrovolsky et al. 1979, Estimation of the size of earthquake preparation zone, Pageoph,117: 1025-1044
  • Keilis-borok and Kossobokov (1990) Premonitory activation of earthquake flow, Algorithm, M8. Phy. Earth planet Inter. 61: 73-83.
  • Bowman DD, Ouillon G, Sammis CG, Sornette A, and Sornette D (1998) An observation test of the critical earthquake concept, J. Geophys. Res., 103: 24, 359-24, 372
  • Yoshihisa I, Yoji K, Takashi T (2002) Large earthquakes initiate by the acceleration of slips on the download extensions of seismogenic faults. Earth Planet. Sci. Let. 202:337.343.
  • Kostoglodov V, Larson K, Singh SK, Lowry A, Santiago JA, franso SI, and Bilham R (2003) A large silent earthquake in the Guerrero seismic gap, Mexico, accepted for Geophys. Res. Lett.
  • Schulz CH, Sykes, LR, Aggarwal YP (1973) Earthquake prediction: A physical basis, Sciences, 181:803-809.
  • Sobolev GA (1993).The basics of earthquakes prediction. Moscow, Nauka Publ.
  • Radon Decay Scheme:
  • Bonchkovsky VF (1954) Changing of the atmospheric electric potential gradient as one of possible precursor of earthquakes. Proceedings of the Geophysical institution No. 25(152): 192.206 (in Russian)
  • Kondo G (1968) The variation of the atmospheric electric field at the time of earthquake. Memoirs of the Kakioka magnetic observatory. 13(1): 11. 23
  • Hao J (1988) The anomalous of atmospheric electric field at the ground level and earthquakes. Acta seismol. Sin. 10: 207.212
  • Nikiforova NN, Michnowski S (1995): Atmospheric electric field anomalies analysis during great Carpatian Earthquake at Polish Observatory Swider. IUGG XXI General Assembly Abstracts. Boulder, Colorado. VA11D.16
  • Vershinin EF, Buzevich AV, Yumoto K, Saita K, Tanaka Y (1999) Correlations of seismic activity with electromagnetic emissions and variations in Kamchatka region. In Atmospheric and Ionospheric Electromagnetic Phenomena Associated with Earthquakes, Ed. By M. Hayakawa. Terra Scientific Publishing Company, Tokyo: 513.517.
  • Hao J, Tang T and Li D (2000) progress in the research of atmospheric electric field anomaly as an index for short impending prediction of earthquakes. J. Earthquake Pred. res. 8: 241.255
  • Sgrina V, Console R, Conti L, Galper AM, Malvezzi V, Parrot M, Picozza P, Scrimagilo R, Spillantini P, Zilpimiani D (2003) The ESPERIA Mission, Fall AGU Meeting 2003, T52D.01.
  • Pulinets SA, Liu JY, Safronova IA (2004 a) One more interpretation of the statistical data analysis of the critical frequency foF2 variations before earthquakes by the data of Chung.Li(Taiwan) ionospheric station. Geomagn. Aeronom. 43: 102.106
  • Jason S, Pulinets S, da Silva Curiel A, Sweeting M (2003) Earthquake Forecast Science Research with a Small Satellite. Royal Soc. Philosoph. Trans,: Math., Phy. & Eng. Sci., 361, No. 1802 :169.173
  • Wicks A, Jason S, Harrison J (2001) An EO constellation based on the TopSat microsatellite: global daily revisit at 2.5 meters. In Proc. 15th Annual Small Satellites Conf., Utah State University, UT, USA, 13.16 August 2001, paper no. SSC01.I.6. (Available from
  • Geller RJ (1997) Earthquake prediction: a critical review. Geophy. J. Int. 131: 425.250
  • Hayakawa M, Fujinawa Y (eds.) (1994) Electromagnetic Phenomena Related to Earthquake Prediction. Terra Sci. Publ.
  • Hayakawa M (ed) (2001) NASDA’s Earthquake Remote Sensing Frontier Research. Seismo.Electromagnetic Phenomena in the Lithosphere, Atmosphere and Ionosphere. Final report. The University of Electro.Communication, Chofu, Tokyo, Japan.
  • Hayakawa M, molchanov OA (eds.) 2002 Seismo.Electromagnetics: Lithosphere.Atmosphere.Ionosphere Coupling, TERRAPUB, Tokyo.
  • Hattori K, Akinaga Y, Hayakawa M, Yumoto K, Nagao T, Uyeda S (2002) ULF magnetic anomaly preceding the 1997 Kagoshima earthquakes, In: Seismo.Electromagnetics: Lithosphere.Atmosphere.Ionosphere Coupling, Eds. M. Hayakawa and O. A. Molchanov, TERRAPUB, Tokyo, 2002, pp. 19.28.
  • Ismaguilov VS, Kopytenko YA, Hattori K, Voronov PM, Molchanov OA, Hayawaka M (2001) ULF magnetic emissions connected with under sea bottom earthquakes. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sci. 1: 23.31.
  • Ondoh T (1998) Ionospheric disturbances associated with great earthquake of Hokkaido southwest coast, japan of July 12, 1993.Phy. earth Plannet. Interr. 105:261.269
  • Ondoh T, Hayawaka M (1999) Anomalous Occurrence of Sproadic E.layers before the Hyogoken.Nanbu Earthquake, M 7.2 of January 17, 1995. In: Atmospheric and Ionospheric Electromagnetic Phenomena Associated with Earthquakes. Terra Scientific publishing Company, Tokyo,pp. 629.640.
  • Ondoh T (2000) Seismo.Ionospheric Phenomena. Adv. Space Res. 26: 1267.1272.
  • Uyeda S, Nagao T, Hattori K, Hayakawa M, Miyaki K, Molchanov O, Gladychev V, Baransky L, Shtchekotov A, Fedorov E, Pokhotelov O, Andreevsky S, Rozhnoi A, Khabazin G, Gorbatikov A, Gordeev E, Chebrov V, Sinitzin V, Lutikov, yunga AS, Kosarev G, Surkov V, Belyaev G (2001) geophysical Observatory in kamchatka region for monitoring of phenomena connected with seismic activity. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 1:3.7.
  • Gladyshev V, Baransky L, Schekotov A, Fedorov E, Pokhotelov O, Andreevsky S, Rozhnoi A, Khabazin Y, Belyaev G, Gorbatikov A, Gordeev E, Chebrov V, Sinitsyn V, Lutikov A, Yunga S, Kosarev G, Surkov V, Molchanov O, Hayakawa M, Uyeda S, Nagao T, Hattori K, Noda Y (2001) Study of electromagnetic emissions associated with seismic activity in Kamchatka region. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sci. 1: 127.136.
  • Garmash SV, Lin’kov EM, Petrova LN, Shved GM (1989) Generation of Atmospheric Oscillations by Seismic Gravitational Vibrations of the Earth. .Izvesitya Atm. Ocean Phys. 25: 1290-1299.
  • Lin’kov EM, Petrova LN, Osipiv KS (1990) Seismic Gravitational Pulsations of the Earth and Atmospheric Disturbance as possible Precursors of strong Earthquakes. Doklady USSR Acad.Sci. 313: 1095-1098.
  • Khalilov E.N. Global Network of Forecasting the Earthquakes: New technology and new philosophy. SWB, London, 2009, 65 p.
  • Khalilov E.N. Forecasting of earthquakes: The reason of failures and the new philosophy. SCIENCE WITHOUT BORDERS. Transactions of the International Academy of Science H &E. Vol.3.2007/2008, SWB, Innsbruck, 2009, pp.300-315.
  • Khalilov E.N. About influence of geodynamic processes on the results of measurements of Cavendish balans. SCIENCE WITHOUT BORDERS. Transactions of the International Academy of Science H &E. Vol.3.2007/2008, SWB, Innsbruck, 2009, pp.398-410.
  • L.N. Petrova, E.G. Orlov, V.V.Karpinskiy. large-scale deformations of the Earth before strong earthquakes on the observations with the help of seismic-gravimeters. Physical bases of forecasting the rock failure. Thesis of reports of VII International school-seminar. Geophysical observatory “Borok”, 17-21 October 2005. M., 2005, p. 46.
  • G.N. Kopilova, T.K.Pinegina, N.N. Smolina, Seismic-hydro-geological effects of the strongest earthquakes (at the example of Kamchatka region). Pp. 166-173. Collected materials of scientific meeting “Problems of modern seismic geology and geodynamics of Central and Eastern Asia (2 volumes). 18-24 September 2007 IZK SO RAS Irkutsk.
  • A.A. Lyubushin. Micro-seismic noise in a minute’s diapason of periods: properties and possible forecasting features. Physics of the Earth. #4, April of 2008, pp. 17-34.
  • I.I.Stepanov. Monitoring of cubic strains with the help of geochemical deformometer in the region of Avachin bay. In the collection Modern volcanism and the processes connected with it. Materials of the anniversary session of Kamchatka scientific center of DVO RAS, devoted to 40 –year of Institute of volcanology, 8-11 October 2002.
  • G.A. Sobolev, A.A.Lyubushin, N.A.Zakrjevskaya. Asymmetric impulses, periodicity and synchronization of low-frequency microseisms. Volcanology and seismology. #2, March, April of 2008, pp. 135-152.
  • V.Y.Khain, E.N.Khalilov. Space-time regularities of seismic and volcanic activities. Bulgaria, Burgas, SWB, 2008, p. 304.
  • Aki K., Earthquake, prediction, societal implications, Univ. Southern California, From Reviews of Geophysics.
  • Dr. Robert Geller. Nature, vol. 385, pg 19-20, 1997
  • Ian Main, Is the reliable prediction of individual earthquakes a realistic scientific goal?, Debate in Nature, 1999
  • Ian Main. Earthquake prediction: concluding remarks. Nature debates, Week 7, (1999).
  • Ludwin R.S., 2001, Earthquake Prediction, Washington Geology, Vol.28, No. 3, May 2001, p.27.
  • Predicting and earthquake.
  • Max Wyss, Not yet, but eventually, Nature debates, Week 1, (1999).
  • Thanassoulas, C., and Klentos, V., (2001). Very short-term (+/- 1 day, +/- 1 hour) timeprediction of a large imminent earthquake. The “second paper”., Institute of Geology and Mineral Exploration (IGME), Athens, Greece, Open File Report A. 4382, pp.1-24.
  • Mavrodiyev Cht., The electromagnetic fields under, on and over Earth surface as “when, where and how” earthquake precursor, European Geophysical Society, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 5, 04049, 2003.
  • Mavrodiyev S. Cht. Applied Ecology of the Black Sea, ISBN 1-56072-613-X, 207 Pages, Nova Science Publishers, Inc., Commack, New York 11725, 1998.
  • Khain V.Y., Khalilov E.N. Tideless variations of gravity before strong distant earthquakes. Science Without Borders. Volume 2. 2006/2006. ICSD/IAS H&E, Innsbruck, 2006, pp. 319-339.
  • Khalilov E.N. About possibility of creation of international global system of forecasting the earthquakes “ATROPATENA” (Baku-Yogyakarta-Islamabad). Natural cataclysms and global problems of the modern civilization. Special edition of Transaction of the International Academy of Science. H&E. ICSD/IAS H&E, Innsbruck, 2007, pp.51-69.
  • Khalilov E.N. Method for recording the low-frequency gravity waves and device for the measurement thereof. Patent of PCT. WO 2005/003818 A1., Geneva, 13.01.2005).

    Relation between solar activity and seismic and volcanic activity


  • Shumilov, O. I., Kasatkina, E. A., Raspopov, O. M., Turunen, E., Jacoby, G., & Morner, N.A. Influence of Cosmic Ray Intensity Modulated by Solar Activity and Volcanic Eruptions on the Climate. The solar cycle and terrestrial climate, Solar and space weather Euroconference (1 : 2000 : Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Tenerife, Spain) Proceedings of the 1st Solar and Space Weather Euroconference, 25-29 September 2000, Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Tenerife, Spain. Edited by A. Wilson. Noordwijk, Netherlands: ESA Publications Division, 2000 xi, 680 p. ESA SP, Vol. 463, ISBN 9290926937, p.547.
  • Abdurakhmanov A.I., Firstov L.P., Shirokov V.A. Possible connection of volcanic eruptions with 11-year cyclicality of solar activity. In the book Bulletin of volcanic stations. Moscow, Science, 1976, No.52, p.3-10.
  • Gadjiyev Y.A., Dadashev R.M., Sapunov A.G. Periodicity of mud volcanoes eruptions and solar activity. Transactions of Azerbaijani Academy of Science, 1985, v.12, No.11, p.38-42.
  • Ivanov-Kholodniy G.S. Solar activity and geophysical processes. Earth and the Universe. 2000, No.1, p.30-36.
  • Kalinin Y.D. Solar conditionality of days duration change and seismic activity. Krasnoyarsk, Institute of Physics of Siberian Department of USSR Academy of Science, 1974, p.23.
  • V.Y.Khain, E.N.Khalilov. Space-Time regularities of seismic and volcanic activity. Bourgas, 2008, 304 p.
  • V.Y.Khain, E.N.Khalilov. Cycles in geodynamic processes: Their possible nature. Moscow, Scientific World, 2009, 520 p.
  • Lursmanashvili O.V. About possibility of influence of solar activity upon distribution of Caucasian earthquakes. Reports of Georgian Academy of Science, 1972, v.65, No.2, p.309-312.
  • Lyatkher V.M. Variation of seismic regime of Earth under the influence of solar cycle length changes. Earth Physics, 2000, No.10, p.93-96.
  • Mekhtiyev Sh.F., Khalilov E.N. About possibility of detection of connection between volcanic eruptions and solar activity. Volcanology and Seismology, M., No.3, 1985, p.64-67.
  • Valyayev B.M., Telepin M.A., Berejnaya E.A., Vakhtangashvili V.Kh. and others Correlation of mud volcanic activity with solar activity (on example of Akhtal volcano) - Lectures of USSR Academy of Science, 1980, v.255, No.5, geology, p.1204-1207.
  • Sitinskiy A.D. About influence of solar activity upon Earth seismicity. USSR Academy of Science reports, v.208, 1973, No.5.
  • Sitinskiy A.D. Dependence of Earth seismicity upon solar processes in interplanetary medium and atmosphere. In book Atlas of temporary variations of natural, anthropogenic and social processes. 2nd volume. M., Scientific World, 1998, p.70-72.
  • Simpson I.F. Solar activity as a triggering mechanism for earthquakes. Earth and Planet, Sci. Letter, 1968, v.3, No.5, p.417-425.
  • Stoyko A., Stoyko N. Rotation de la terra, phenomenes geophysiques et activite du soleil. – Bull. Cl. Sci. Acad. Roy.Belg., 1969, t.55, p.279-285.
  • Tzirel S.V. About possible dependence of volcanic activity upon solar activity. In book Atlas of temporary variations of natural, anthropogenic and social processes. 3rd volume, M., Yanus-K, 2002, p.254-256.
  • Mekhtiyev Sh.F., Khalilov E.N. Rhythms of Earth Cataclysms. Baku, Elm, 1988, 108 pp.
  • Sobolev G.A., Shestopalov I.P., Kharin Y.P. Geoeffective solar flashes and seismic activity of the Earth // Physics of the Earth. 1998. №7, p. 85–90.
  • Rogojin I.P., Shestopalov I.P. Century cycles of seismicity of the Earth and seismic safety of the atomic power station. Nuclear strategy, Moskow, №29, 2007, p.118.
  • Gokov, A.M. Geomagnetic and Seismic Activities Relationship. Microwave & Telecommunication Technology, 2007. CriMiCo 2007. 17th International Crimean Conference Volume , Issue , 10-14 Sept. 2007 Page(s):841 – 842. Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/CRMICO.2007.4368969.
  • Barsukov O.M. Solar's badgers of flash, the sudden beginnings and earthquakes. News of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR. Physics of the Earth., 1991г., N12. p. 93-97.
  • Gousheva, M. N.; Georgieva, K. Y.; Kirov, B. B.; Atanasov, D. On the Relation Between Solar Activity and Seismicity. RAST 2003: Proceedings of the International Conference on Recent Advances in Space Technologies, held November 20-22, 2003, in Istanbul, Turkey. Edited by S. Kurnaz, F. Ince and S. Onbaşioglu. IEEE Catalog Number 03EX743. ISBN: 0-7803-8142-4. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 2003109595. Published by the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc., 2003, p.236
  • Zhang, Gui-Qing. Relationship between global seismicity and solar activities Acta Seismologica Sinica, Volume 11, 1998, Issue 4, pp.495-500.
  • Odintsov S., Boyarchuk K., Georgieva K., Kirov B. and Atanasov D. Long-period trends in global seismic and geomagnetic activity and their relation to solar activity. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, Volume 31, Issues 1-3, 2006, Pages 88-93.
  • Odintsov S.D., G.S. Ivanov-Kholodnyi, K. Georgieva, 2007, published in Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Fizicheskaya, 2007, Vol. 71, No. 4, pp. 608–610.
  • Kirov. B. Georgiyeva. K. Solar cycle influence on the seismic activity. Bulgarian Journal of Physics 27 No 2, 2OOO, p.35-42.
  • WANG Zhongrui, Song FENG and TANG Maocang. A Relationship between Solar Activity and Frequency of Natural Disasters in China. Advances in atmospheric scienes. Vol.20, No 6, 2003, PP. 934–939.
  • Schulenberg K. Correlation Between Time-Specific Solar Activity and Subsequent Earthquakes. Presented at WPGM 2006 in Beijing, China on Thursday July 27th.

    Relation between solar activity and global climate change


  • Athaturov M.E., Budiko M.I., Vinnikov K.Y. and others. Volcanos, stratospheric an aerosol and a climate of the Earth. L: Hydrometeoixdat, 1986, 256 p.
  • Budiko M.I. The climate fluctuation - L: Hydrometeoizdat. 1974, 280 p.
  • Budiko M.I. The problem of carbon dioxide. L: Hydrometeoizdat. 1979, 59.
  • Budiko M.I. The influence of the volcanic eruption to the climate. Meteorology and Hydrology, 1984, № 3, p. 5-11.
  • Cadle R.D. Volcanic emission of holides and sulfur compounds to the troposphere and stratosphere. - J. Geophys. Res., 1975, vol. 80, N12, p. 1650-1652.
  • Gerlach N.M. Evolution of volcanic gas analysis from Surtsey volcano, Iceland, 1964-1967. J. Volcan. Geotherm. Res., 1980, N 8, p. 191-198.
  • Khain V.Y., Khalilov E.N. Space-Time regularities of seismic and volcanic activity. Burgas, SWB, 2008, 304 p.
  • Khain V.Y., Khalilov E.N. Regularity of spatial-temporary distribution of volcano eruptions. International Academy of Science. II&E. Science without borders, Vol. 1, 2003-2004, ICSD/IAS, Innsbruck, pp. 243-251.
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):

    Accelerating of Earth's Magnetic Poles


  • Dr.Tony Phillips. Responsible NASA official: John M. Horack. Earth's Inconstant Magnetic Field. Our planet's magnetic field is in a constant state of change, say researchers who are beginning to understand how it behaves and why. The Science and Technology Directorate at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center.
  • V.V. Kuznetsov, Geomagnetism. North Magnetic Pole
  • 2006, published in Geomagnetizm i Aeronomiya, 2006, Vol. 46, No. 2, pp. 280–288.
  • Natural Resources Canada. Geological Survey of Canada. Geomagnetism. North Magnetic Pole.
  • Kerton, Adrian K. Climate Change and the Earth's Magnetic Poles, A Possible Connection. Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Numbers 1-2, January 2009 , pp. 75-83(9) Publisher: Multi-Science Publishing Co Ltd.
  • Earth's North Magnetic Pole Drifting Quickly. American Geophysical Union:
  • By Mark Floyd. Movement of Earth's North Magnetic Pole Accelerating Rapidly. Source: Joe Stoner.
  • Link found between tropical rainfall and Earth's magnetic field.
  • Mads Faurschou Knudsen and Peter Riisager. Is there a link between Earth's magnetic field and low-latitude precipitation? Geology; January 2009; v. 37; no. 1; p. 71-74; DOI:10.1130/G25238A.1 © 2009 Geological Society of America
  • Khain V.Y., Khalilov E.N. Influence of cyclicity of eruptions of volcanos on global changes of a climate. In book: /Khain V.Y., Khalilov E.N. Space-Time regularities of seismic and volcanic activity. Burgas, SWB, 2008, 304 p./, pp.214-229.
  • V.Y.Khain, E.N.Khalilov. Cycles in geodynamic processes: Their possible nature. Moscow, Scientific World, 2009, 520 p.
  • Dyachenco A.I. Magnetic poles of the Earth. The Moscow center of continuous mathematical education. Moscow, 2003, 48 pp.
  • Brian Vastag. North Magnetic Pole Is Shifting Rapidly Toward Russia.National Geographic News. December 15, 2005, USA.
  • Dmitriev A.N. Planetophysical state of the Earth and life. IICA Transactions, Volume 4, 1997.