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30:09:2016

Европейский сейсмологический центр EMSC сообщил, что в центральной части Италии произошло землетрясение магнитудой 6,1. По данным Геологической службы США (USGS), сила толчков составила 6,2.

14:01:2016

Elchin Khalilov has informed about the beginning of new project GNFE under the name "Geodynamic monitoring and hazard early warning system in landslide areas:"GeoDyn".

The new project is based on use of long-term experience effective application of international systems and geodynamical monitoring for forecasting of earthquakes. The project's mission is to create an effective technology for monitoring and early warning of people about the danger of a landslide, reducing thereby the risk to potential victims and other negative consequences of landslides affecting cities and high-risk industrial facilities (main highways and railways, dams, fuel storages and warehouses for toxic substances, petrochemical plants, etc.).

04:12:2015

Prof. Elchin Khalilov is President of the Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes GNFE (UK) and Chairman of GEOCHANGE International Committee (Germany), gave the forecast of seismic activity of the world till 2026 on behalf of the above-mentioned organizations.

30:11:2015

Проф. Эльчин Халилов - Президент Глобальной Сети Прогнозирования Землетрясений GNFE (UK) и  Председатель Международного  Комитета  GEOCHANGE (Germany), представил  прогноз  сейсмической активности  мира до 2026 года от имени вышеуказанных организаций. 

 

“Geodynamic monitoring and hazard early warning system in landslide areas:“GeoDyn”

Elchin Khalilov has informed about the beginning of new project GNFE under the name "Geodynamic monitoring and hazard early warning system in landslide areas:"GeoDyn".

The new project is based on use of long-term experience effective application of international systems and geodynamical monitoring for forecasting of earthquakes.

The project's mission is to create an effective technology for monitoring and early warning of people about the danger of a landslide, reducing thereby the risk to potential victims and other negative consequences of landslides affecting cities and high-risk industrial facilities (main highways and railways, dams, fuel storages and warehouses for toxic substances, petrochemical plants, etc.).

The main objectives of the project are:

-  Creating a system of real-time geodynamic monitoring and early warning of landslide danger (GLAMS);

-  Developing theoretical principles and methodology of GLAMS application to control different types of landslides;

-  Creating on the basis of GLAMS application the international network of geodynamic monitoring and early warning in real-time with the possibility of including new members from other countries into the network (IGLAMS);

-  Creating and launching an interactive website for interactive remote monitoring, data analysis and early warning in real time about a landslide hazard for members (users) of the international IGLAMS network;

-  Creating special GeoDyn stations for autonomous wireless remote monitoring and early warning of a landslide danger using the optimal set of sensors and feedback to control GLAMS parameters and test all its elements;

-  Creating a maximally effective security system to protect the GeoDyn stations from possible theft and vandalism;

-  Creating a sustainable and reliable energy supply and communication system of the GeoDyn stations, able to withstand harsh environmental factors: rainfall, storms, damage during landslide movement, damage from falling rocks and debris, etc.

 Novelty as to science and technology Scientific novelty

1. The project will incorporate the existing International Network for Geodynamic Monitoring of Seismically Active Areas (IGSAAMS) and GLAMS to be established within this project. For the first time in the world, data on registration of tectonic waves with the ATROPATENA stations for geodynamic monitoring and forecasting of earthquakes (members of the Global IGSAAMS Network) will be used to identify the most dangerous periods of time for possible intensification of landslides, with the heavy precipitation factor simultaneously present.

2. Due to the separate use of a triaxial accelerometer and a parabolic seismoacoustic and ultrasonic sensor specially designed by SRIPSE, the effect of dilatancy will first be employed for consistent tracking of the development of different stages of landslide preparation: from the formation of small cracks in the landslide bed to the complete separation of the landslide body and the formation of a horizontal rupture along the sliding plane. This will help to quite 11 accurately carry out forecasting of the geodynamic condition of a landslide and early warning of the beginning of its movement.

3. For the first time, the results of monitoring the frequency-amplitude spectrum of the seismic acoustic emission in real time will be used to follow the landslide process' evolution dynamics. Technological novelty 1. In all known systems of monitoring and early warning of landslides, the one-way radio communication philosophy is applied, when sensors do not have feedback and only send information to the base computer that collects, packetizes and transfers information to the central user database. In this project, all the GeoDyn stations of the GLAMS network are identical and any of the stations, if required, can be remotely turned by the administrator into a base one. Thanks to that, maximum reliability and functional stability of the GLAMS network is achieved, which will continue to work even if the base station is damaged.  For the system's maximum reliability, the philosophy of "smart stations" with their own processors is employed. All stations have a direct and feedback communication to secure realtime functioning of the remote testing of the sensors (Self Test Subsystem - STS). STS along with the station's sensors has its own sensors to monitor temperature, humidity, solar panels' operation, the battery charge level etc.). A special software program performs a continuous testing of all systems of the station and if a fault is detected, sends information through the base station to the administrator. Besides, the administrator is capable of remotely managing all stations, in particular, of setting and changing the sensor modes, updating the stations' software, switching on and off individual systems, etc. 3. All stations have autonomous databases. This makes it possible to store data with maximum safety, even if the base station and central database are damaged. A similar system has earned an excellent reputation in operation of the ATROPATENA stations, when as a result of a computer virus in 2010 the central and duplicating databases were damaged and part of the data was lost forever. Thanks to each ATROPATENA station's own database, the central database was fully restored in the shortest possible time.

4. The GeoDyn station, along with a standard triaxial accelerometer, will use for the first time a parabolic seismoacoustic and ultrasonic sensor (SAUS) developed in SRIPSE. SAUS uses a parabolic reflector in the focus of which a highfrequency piezocrystal microphone is placed. Due to this design, the sensitivity of SAUS is much higher than that of geophones and conventional microphones. It is known that triaxial accelerometers detect low-frequency seismoacoustic radiation and are not able to register highfrequency acoustic and ultrasonic emission which occurs at an early stage of landslide activation (at the initial process of dilatancy). Thus, the simultaneous use of the triaxial accelerometer and SAUS will allow more efficient employment of the method of recording and tracing the landslide activation dynamics at an early stage.

5. Each GeoDyn station will be using all-round looking cameras that allow us to have a complete picture of the weather, the condition of the station and the surrounding area and the approaching of the station by outsiders, animals, etc. The camera will transmit frames at a rate remotely set by the administrator, for example, one frame per 5 seconds and, if necessary, in the standard mode - 24 frames per second.

6. The review of the existing technologies for monitoring and early warning of landslides has led us to the conclusion that the vast majority of sensors used in the monitoring networks are not well protected against theft and vandalism as well as the weather conditions such as strong wind, precipitation, etc. In the GeoDyn stations, the use of special protective modules is provided for, inside which will be placed all station equipment. The main case of the security module will be made of seismic resistant bricks (aseismic construction bricks, ACB) designed within the previous NATO project of SRIPSE (NATO SfP 982167 Project, New Technology for Seismic Resistant Construction). ACB structures are resistant to strong earthquakes, vibrations, 12 explosions and mechanical shocks, which explains the choice of this technology for security modules of the GeoDyn stations. The security module protects to the maximum extent the station equipment from theft, vandalism and aggressive environment. The experience of the previous project shows that the cost of the case made of ACB will be low and its assembly during installation will take less 30 minutes or less. The relatively heavy weight of the security module (300-350 kg) will prevent it from being stolen or displaced without certain appliances. Besides, the high rack complicates theft of and damage to the solar panel, GPS sensor and station antenna. On the other hand, the high position of the antenna greatly increases the range of the wireless connection between the stations.

7. It is planned to establish within the Scientific Research Institute for Prognosis and Studying of Earthquakes (SRIPSE) an international system for geodynamic monitoring of landslides (IGLAMS). If the region where the landslide area is located lacks necessary institutions and experts, the regional geodynamic monitoring network of the landslide area, following a commission by local authorities, will be connected to IGLAMS via the Internet. Data from all stations will be transmitted online to the central IGLAMS database via the Internet and will be analyzed by SRIPSE. In this case, IGLAMS will be monitoring the landslide process and warning the local authorities of the imminent landslide hazard. This will solve the problem of involving qualified specialists and significantly reduce the local authorities' expenses on the use of the developed geodynamic landslide area monitoring (GLAM) technology.